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The Zipline Report · Subscriber edition

The Zipline report, in full.

The chart, the fleet by month, and what we still don’t know.

As of . Updated with each capture.

202420252026Archive copies3,010Oct 10, 2026202420252026Archive copiesOur captures3,010Oct 10, 2026

Public archive copies before March 19, 2026 Our own captures after

Zipline’s visible fleet, U.S. aircraft registry. Before March 19, 2026: public archive copies, verified byte-identical to our own captures on overlapping dates. Sources

It was in the public file.

406 of 429

Zipline registered 429 aircraft in the 30 days before its Uber deal was announced on August 17, 2026. 406 of them were in the public file before the news. Source

In the public file first: 406 Not yet: 23

One dot for each aircraft Zipline registered in the 30 days before August 17, 2026.

  • The next wave

    432 registration numbers reserved for Zipline-built aircraft that are not registered yet. A reserved number carries no name in the public file, so these are counted by model. Source

  • Share of the visible fleet

    81% of visible U.S. delivery drones are registered to Zipline: 3,010 of 3,701. SourceOn March 19, 2026, the first capture counted, it was 70%: 1,431 of 2,044.

  • Latest event

    Oct 9, 2026 Zipline opened drone delivery in Round Rock, in the Austin area, as reported by Community Impact. Source

The fleet, by month

DateVisible aircraftBasis
End of Dec 202320Archive copies
End of Mar 202441Archive copies
End of Jun 202441Archive copies
End of Sep 2024127Archive copies
End of Dec 2024174Archive copies
End of Mar 2025380Archive copies
End of Jun 2025731Archive copies
End of Sep 2025731Archive copies
End of Dec 2025931Archive copies
Mar 19, 20261,431Our captures
Mar 20, 20261,431Our captures
Apr 29, 20261,528Our captures
May 11, 20261,548Our captures
Jun 30, 20262,213Our captures
Jul 31, 20262,313Our captures
Aug 31, 20262,751Our captures
Sep 30, 20262,974Our captures
Oct 10, 20263,010Our captures

Where the fleet is heading.

Three simple paths for the visible fleet, from the latest capture to December 31, 2027. The record stops at the line marked Today.

101001,00010,000Log scale2024202520262027TodayProjected3,010Aggressive 29,600Neutral 15,200Conservative 6,450101001,00010,000Log scale2024202520262027TodayProjected3,010Aggressive 29,600Neutral 15,200Conservative 6,450

Public archive copies before March 19, 2026 Our own captures after Projected from the latest capture

Today is the latest capture, October 10, 2026: 3,010 visible aircraft. Each projected path ends on December 31, 2027. Sources

The three cases

CaseEnd of 2026Mid-2027End of 2027Passes 10,000
Conservative3,6405,0406,4502029
Neutral4,0507,81015,200September 2027
Aggressive4,58011,60029,600June 2027

Projected visible aircraft, rounded to three figures.

What each case assumes

  • Conservative. 7.7 visible aircraft added a day, the average from March 19, 2026 to October 10, 2026, carried forward with no acceleration.
  • Neutral. Compound growth of 0.36% a day, the rate from March 19, 2026 to October 10, 2026. At that rate the visible fleet doubles about every 191 days.
  • Aggressive. Compound growth of 0.51% a day, the rate from December 21, 2023, the first archived file that shows a Zipline aircraft, to October 10, 2026. At that rate the visible fleet doubles about every 136 days.

By the end of 2026 the record will show which path is real. We capture it every day.

Projections are simple extrapolations of the visible fleet on the U.S. aircraft registry, not forecasts of Zipline’s business and not investment advice. Counts before March 19, 2026 are read from public archive copies of the registry file.

What this can and can’t show

  • Visible aircraft only. Drones under 55 lb can register in a separate system that is not public. They are not in the file, and not in any count here.
  • One clear case, not a rule. The Uber deal was the one clear case where the registry moved first. Five other 2026 events showed nothing beforehand.
  • Archive history is labeled. Before March 19, 2026 the line is the count in public archive copies of the registry file, verified byte-identical to our own captures on overlapping dates. 814 of 824 FAA registry publications since August 16, 2023, year-end files back to 2010, and our own capture since March 19, 2026.
  • Capacity, not flights. A registration says an aircraft exists. It does not say it flew.
  • The history. Three years of registry history. 814 of 824 publications since August 16, 2023. Year-end files back to 2010. Our own capture since March 19, 2026. The registry publishes five days a week.

What we don’t know yet

  • Flights. The registry counts aircraft. Terminal does not collect flight broadcasts today.
  • 2020 to 2023. Zipline flew in the U.S. from May 2020, but no Zipline aircraft was visible until December 2023. We have not verified where those aircraft were registered.
  • Small drones. Other operators may fly drones under 55 lb that this file cannot see. Zipline’s lead is a lead among visible fleets.
  • The reserved numbers. We do not know when, or whether, they become aircraft.
  • Why registrations cluster. The file cannot say whether they follow deals, factory output or paperwork.

Source: the U.S. aircraft registry’s public releasable file. Truncated captures are excluded. The solid line is the count in each capture. The dashed line before it is the count in each public archive copy of the file, verified byte-identical to our own captures on overlapping dates.

This is one company. Terminal tracks thousands.

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