A friend forwarded us an email last night: an invitation to buy into Zipline at $20B. In January, it was $7.6B.
The private pack keeps climbing.
Shield AI set $12.7B in March.
Quantum-Systems, about $8B in July.
Neros, $2.5B in August.
Anduril's next round is being shopped north of $100B.
Defense tech startups raised more in the first five months of 2026 than in all of record-setting 2025.
The public side tells a different story.
The drone ETFs are down 42% (DRNZ) and 49% (JEDI) from their highs.
Even ARK's broader space and defense fund is off 18%.
Red Cat is down 72%. AeroVironment, 70%. Kratos, 68%. Ondas, 52%.
That's the divergence.
Should we be concerned? Or is this an opportunity?
One public name may already be answering.
BETA Technologies is up 28% since the week of Mar 30. JOBY and ACHR closed lower. It's still below its November debut.
Its own aircraft on the FAA register went from 2 to 12 as of Oct 10.
On Oct 21, BETA said the FAA cleared its ALIA for flight operations with prospective customers, a first for an electric VTOL by BETA's account.
We're watching.
Have questions? How can I help? Message me.
Prices and drawdowns are our own readings. Research, not a recommendation or a prediction of returns.
